Tag Archives: 2016 interest rate forecast

Mortgage Rates Hover Near All-Time Low

HISTORICPHOENIXDISTRICTS.COM DAILY REAL ESTATE NEWS | FRIDAY, JULY 01, 2016

Fixed-rate mortgages this week dropped to their lowest averages of the year, which analysts attribute to the fallout from last week’s “Brexit” vote.

The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 3.48 percent this week, only 17 basis points from its all-time record low of 3.31 percent in November 2012, Freddie Mac reports.

“In the wake of the Brexit vote, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond plummeted 24 basis points,” says Sean Becketti, Freddie Mac’s chief economist. “This extremely low mortgage rate should support solid home sales and refinancing volume this summer.”

Freddie Mac reports the following national averages for the week ending June 30: 

  • 30-year fixed-rate mortgages: averaged 3.48 percent, with an average 0.5 point, falling from last week’s 3.56 percent average. Last year at this time, 30-year rates averaged 4.08 percent. 
  • 15-year fixed-rate mortgages: averaged 2.78 percent, with an average 0.4 point, dropping from last week’s 2.83 percent average. Last year at this time, 15-year rates averaged 3.24 percent. 
  • 5-year hybrid adjustable-rate mortgages: averaged 2.70 percent, with an average 0.5 point, falling from last week’s 2.74 percent average. A year ago, 5-year ARMs averaged 2.99 percent. 

Source: Freddie Mac

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Mortgage Rates Move Lower Than Expected

DAILY REAL ESTATE NEWS | FRIDAY, FEBRUARY 05, 2016

Janet Yellen Interest Rates

For the fifth consecutive week, mortgage rates trended down, surprising even forecasters. The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is now at its lowest average since April 30, 2015.

“Market volatility — and the associated flight to quality — continued unabated this week,” says Sean Becketti, Freddie Mac’s chief economist. “The yield on the 10-year Treasury dropped another 15 basis points, and the 30-year mortgage rate fell 7 basis points as well, to 3.72 percent. Both the Treasury yield and the mortgage rate now are in the neighborhood of early-2015 lows. These declines are not what the market anticipated when the Fed raised the Federal funds rate in December. For now, though, sub-4-percent mortgage rates are providing a longer-than-expected opportunity for mortgage borrowers to refinance.”

This week the market forecasted zero hikes in 2016 for the Fed’s short-term rates, which could keep mortgage rates low. Analysts are now predicting that the closely monitored Fed Futures market has nearly a 60 percent chance of no rate hikes at all this year, marking a “dramatic U-Turn from only a month ago when the market was pricing in a 75 percent probability the Fed would increase rates at least once in 2016,” CNNMoney reports.

The Fed had risen rates 0.25 in December, its first increase in nearly 10 years. But with stock markets spiraling downward and the fragile global economy, analysts believe this will likely prompt the Fed to pause in raising rates.

“Things have happened in financial markets and in the flow of economic data that may be in the process of altering the outlook for growth,” Fed vice chairman Bill Dudley told MarketWatch this week.

Freddie Mac reports the following national averages with mortgage rates for the week ending Feb. 4:

  • 30-year fixed-rate mortgages: averaged 3.72 percent, with an average 0.6 point, dropping from last week’s 3.79 percent average. A year ago, 30-year rates averaged 3.59 percent.
  • 15-year fixed-rate mortgages: averaged 3.01 percent, with an average 0.5 point, falling from last week’s 3.07 percent average. Last year at this time, 15-year rates averaged 2.92 percent.
  • 5-year hybrid adjustable-rate mortgages: averaged 2.85 percent, with an average 0.4 point, falling from last week’s 2.90 percent average. A year ago, 5-year ARMs averaged 2.82 percent.

The opportunity to buy a home at low interest rates is still here. For how long, who knows?

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6 Stellar Reasons to Buy a Home in 2016

Buying a Home In 2016

Six Stellar Reasons To Buy a Home In 2016

Is it really 2016 already?  For those of you who happen to be planning on buying a home in the new year—or even just trying to—there’s a whole lot to celebrate. Why? A variety of financial vectors have dovetailed to make this the perfect storm for home buyers to get out there and make an (winning) offer. Here are six home-buying reasons to be thankful while ringing in the new year:

Reason No. 1: Interest rates are still at record lows

Even though they may creep up at any moment, it’s nonetheless a fact that interest rates on home loans are at historic lows, with a 30-year fixed-rate home loan still hovering around 4%.

“Remember 18.5% in the ’80s?” asks Tom Postilio, a real estate broker with Douglas Elliman Real Estate and a star of HGTV’s “Selling New York.”“It is likely that we’ll never see interest rates this low again. So while prices are high in some markets, the savings in interest payments could easily amount to hundreds of thousands of dollars over the life of the mortgage.”

Reason No. 2: Rents have skyrocketed

Another reason home buyers are lucky is that rents are going up, up, up! (This, on the other hand, is a reason not to be thankful if you’re a renter.) In fact, rents outpaced home values in 20 of the 35 biggest housing markets in 2015. What’s more, according to the 2015 Rent.com Rental Market Report, 88% of property managers raised their rent in the past 12 months, and an 8% hike is predicted for 2016.

“In most metropolitan cities, monthly rent is comparable to that of a monthly mortgage payment, sometimes more,” says Heather Garriock, mortgage agent for The Mortgage Group. “Doesn’t it make more sense to put those monthly chunks of money into your own appreciating asset rather than handing it over to your landlord and saying goodbye to it forever?”

Reason No. 3: Home prices are stabilizing

For the first time in years, prices that have been climbing steadily upward are stabilizing, restoring a level playing field that helps buyers drive a harder bargain with sellers, even in heated markets.

“Local markets vary, but generally we are experiencing a cooling period,” says Postilio. “At this moment, buyers have the opportunity to capitalize on this.”

Reason No. 4: Down payments don’t need to break the bank

Probably the biggest obstacle that prevents renters from becoming homeowners is pulling together a down payment. But today, that chunk of change can be smaller, thanks to a variety of programs to help home buyers. For instance, the new Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac Home Possible Advantage Program allows for a 3% down payment for credit scores as low as 620.

Reason No. 5: Mortgage insurance is a deal, too

If you do decide to put less than 20% down on a home, you are then required to have mortgage insurance (basically in case you default). A workaround to handle this, however, is to take out a loan from the Federal Housing Administration—a government mortgage insurer that backs loans with down payments as low as 3.5% and credit scores as low as 580. The fees are way down from 1.35% to 0.85% of the mortgage balance, meaning your monthly mortgage total will be significantly lower if you fund it this way. In fact, the FHA predicts this 37% annual premium cut will bring 250,000 first-time buyers into the market. Why not be one of them?

Reason No. 6: You’ll reap major tax breaks

Tax laws continue to favor homeowners, so you’re not just buying a place to live—you’re getting a tax break! The biggest one is that unless your home loan is more than $1 million, you can deduct all the monthly interest you are paying on that loan. Homeowners may also deduct certain home-related expenses and home property taxes.

by Kimberly Dawn Neumann

Bond Rate Forecast for 2016

What will happen to bonds in 2016?

Next year may be a bumpy ride for fixed income. In 2016, the drivers of volatility will be the Fed and the economy.

“We are expecting a lot of uncertainty around the path of rates and when the Fed will hike rates (again),” says George Rusnak, co-head of global fixed income at the Wells Fargo Investment Institute.

He forecasts that 10-year U.S. Treasury notes will end 2016 from 2.5% to 2.75% after hitting 2.24% in late December 2015.

He expects a flattening of the yield curve, with the 30-year Treasury ending 2016 around 3% to 3.5% after reaching 2.95% in December 2015. The Treasury yield curve shows the yield on the most recent issuances of Treasury bills, notes and bonds.

Greg McBride, CFA, Bankrate’s chief financial analyst, also predicts further flattening, with the yield on the 1-year T-bill rising to 1.5% by the end of 2016 from 0.66% at the end of 2015.

“Any increases in longer-term rates will be considerably more restrained for much of 2016,” McBride says.

For Donald Cummings, founder and portfolio manager of Blue Haven Capital, the sweet spot for investors is in intermediate maturities. “With the (10-year) at 2.3%, I’m still in the 7- or 8-year maturities. But, if we get to 2.5% or 2.75%, I can go out into the 10-year or 12-year sector because then I’m getting compensated for going out,” he says.

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