Tag Archives: Homebuying

10 Housing Markets to Envy in 2017

DAILY REAL ESTATE NEWS | THURSDAY, DECEMBER 01, 2016

Housing Forecast Chart for 2017The national housing market is largely predicted to moderate in 2017, but a handful of metros are expected to beat expectations. In fact, 10 markets are looking like hot-beds for growth in the new year with Phoenix, Arizona being number one.

Realtor.com®’s research team has flagged markets that will likely see average price gains of 5.8 percent and sales growth of 6.3 percent in 2017. Those gains would exceed next year’s anticipated national growth of 3.9 percent in home prices and 1.9 percent in home sales.

As such, real estate professionals in these 10 markets should expect a booming business in 2017. Realtor.com® notes these are the hottest housing markets to watch in the new year, based on price and sales gains:

1. Phoenix–Mesa–Scottsdale, Ariz.

2. Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, Calif.

3. Boston-Cambridge-Newton, Mass.-N.H.

4. Sacramento–Roseville–Arden-Arcade, Calif.

5. Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, Calif.

6. Jacksonville, Fla.

7. Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, Fla.

8. Raleigh, N.C.

9. Tucson, Ariz.

10. Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, Ore.-Wash.

Why are expectations so high for these 10 markets? Realtor.com®’s research team notes that strong local economies and population growth are helping to fuel sales. Also, the top 10 housing markets have other commonalities, such as relatively affordable rental prices, low unemployment, and large populations of millennials and baby boomers.

Top Housing Trends for 2017
Next year’s predicted slowing price and sales growth, increasing interest rates and changing buyer demographics are setting the stage for five key housing trends:

  1. Millennials and boomers will dominate the market – Next year, the housing market will be in the middle of two massive demographic waves, millennials and baby boomers – that will power demand for at least the next 10 years. Although increasing interest rates have prompted realtor.com® to lower its prediction of millennial market share to 33 percent of the buyer pool; millennials and baby boomers will still comprise the majority of the market. Baby boomers are expected to make up 30 percent of buyers in 2017 and given they’re less dependent on financing, they are anticipated to be more successful when it comes to closing.
  2. Midwestern cities will continue to be hotbeds for millennials – Midwestern cities are anticipated to continue to beat the national average in millennial purchase market share in 2017 with Madison, Wis.; Columbus, Ohio; Omaha, Neb.; Des Moines, Iowa; and Minneapolis, leading the pack. This year, average millennial market share in these markets is 42 percent, far higher than the U.S. average of 38 percent. With strong affordability in 15 of the 19 largest Midwestern markets, realtor.com® expects this trend to continue in 2017 even as interest rates increase.
  3. Slowing price appreciation – Nationally, home prices are forecast to slow to 3.9 percent growth year over year, from an estimated 4.9 percent in 2016. Of the top 100 largest metros in the country, 26 markets are expected to see price acceleration of 1 percent point or more with Greensboro–High Point, N.C.; Akron, Ohio; and Baltimore–Columbia–Towson, Md., experiencing the largest gains.  Likewise, 46 markets are expected to see a slowdown in price growth of 1 percent or more with Lakeland–Winter Haven, Fla., Durham–Chapel Hill, N.C.; and Jackson, Miss., undergoing the biggest shift to slower price appreciation.
  4. Fewer homes on the market and fast moving markets – Inventory is currently down an average of 11 percent in the top 100 metros in the U.S. The conditions that are limiting home supply are not expected to change in 2017. Median age of inventory is currently 68 days in the top 100 metros, which is 14 percent – or 11 days – faster than U.S. overall.
  5. Western cities will continue to lead the nation in prices and sales – Western metros in the U.S. are forecast to see a price increase of 5.8 percent and sales increase of 4.7 percent, much higher than the U.S. overall. These markets also dominate the ranking of the realtor.com® 2017 top housing markets, making up five of the top 10 markets on the list (Los Angeles, Sacramentoand Riverside, Calif., Tucson, Ariz., and Portland, Ore.) and 11 of the top 25 (Colorado Springs, Colo.; San Diego; Salt Lake City; Provo–Orem, Utah; Seattle. and Oxnard–Thousand Oaks–Ventura, Calif.)

REPORT: Phoenix Ranked Second-Best Metro Area For Homeowners

Bankrate.com Aug 31, 2016

The Phoenix metro area is the second-best in the nation for homeowners, according to a Bankrate.com report released Wednesday.

phoenix,az,market report,real estate,historic,bestPortland, Phoenix, Atlanta, Las Vegas and Minneapolis/St. Paul round out the best metropolitan areas for homeowners, according to the report. Bankrate.com is a leading aggregator of financial rate information and this marks their first time releasing such a report.

The study reviewed eight factors: home affordability; price appreciation; property taxes; homeowners’ insurance, energy and maintenance costs; foreclosures and how rapidly rents rose over the past six years for which data are available.

Phoenix ranked high on the list for several reasons, including strong home-price appreciation, few foreclosures and inexpensive homeowners’ insurance, according to the report.

“Phoenix was one of the best cities in all the categories we looked at,” said Claes Bell, Bankrate.com analyst. “We were looking to see which cities were the best for attainability, sustainability, affordability and if there was a rewarding financial benefit to owning a home in these areas.”

The Phoenix area scores fifth lowest on the scale of rent hedging, which is a way of measuring rent increases compared with the home price appreciation. In Phoenix, house prices have also been rising faster than rents over the past five years, contributing to the Valley’s high ranking. The Phoenix metro area had the tenth highest energy cost among the 50 metro areas, a reflection of high air conditioning bills during the summer months, according to Bankrate.com.

Home values plunged during the housing bust, but now they are recovering, according to Bankrate.com, and the pace of home appreciation in Phoenix in the last five years is second fastest among the 50 largest metro areas.

The greater Phoenix area also has bounced back from the foreclosure crisis. For the last three years the city has had the second lowest foreclosure rate among top metro areas.

“Builders stopped building during the housing bubble and now demand beats out supply,” Bell said. “Phoenix is no different in that way from the rest of the country. What’s different is the property tax rate and the affordability of the home itself. In cities like New York and L.A., housing costs are half to three-quarters of a person’s annual income.”

Strong home-price appreciation over the past five years is a common thread in Phoenix, Atlanta and Las Vegas. The Twin Cities’ best housing attributes are strong home-price appreciation and a dearth of foreclosures.

Hartford, Connecticut ranks last because of high carrying costs: It has above-average property tax, energy, homeowners’ insurance and maintenance fees. The New York City metro area is second-worst due to high property taxes, minimal home-price appreciation and expensive maintenance costs. Only Los Angeles (fourth-worst) prevented a northeastern sweep of the bottom five (Providence is third-worst and Buffalo is fifth from the rear), according to the report.

“Major cities in the middle of the country did really well in this ranking,” Bell said in a press release. “Out of the top 15 metro areas, only one is within 250 miles of an ocean. Homeowners in America’s largest coastal cities face a number of challenges, ranging from sky-high mortgage payments gobbling up an outsized portion of homeowners’ incomes to high property insurance rates, especially in hurricane-prone areas, and our ranking reflects that.

It’s a terrific time to buy or sell a home in the Phoenix Metro area.

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Just released – Phoenix has 6.0% appreciation over last year

The latest S&P/Case-Shiller® Home Price Index® numbers came out this morning, covering sales that closed between February 2016 and February 2016. The greater Phoenix metro area came in with 6.04% appreciation over that 12 month period. 

Case Shiller IndexThe Cromford Report comments – “The west coast continues to appreciate the fastest, with Denver also very strong. Phoenix is in the middle of this pack of 20, but beat the overall average for the USA. When we look at the month to month change we see:

  1. San Francisco 1.06%
  2. Seattle 1.06%
  3. Denver 0.94%
  4. Portland 0.75%
  5. Los Angeles 0.70%
  6. Tampa 0.59%
  7. Dallas 0.52%
  8. Atlanta 0.37%
  9. Charlotte 0.35%
  10. Phoenix 0.27% 
  11. Las Vegas 0.21%
  12. Detroit 0.10%
  13. Miami 0.08%
  14. San Diego 0.06%
  15. Boston -0.08%
  16. Washington DC -0.20%
  17. Chicago -0.31%
  18. Minneapolis -0.44%
  19. New York -0.47%
  20. Cleveland -0.60%”

If you’re ready to buy a home in Phoenix, Scottsdale or surrounding areas, contact me today for a no obligation consultation.

Mortgage Rates Reach a New Low for 2016

It’s a great time to buy a Phoenix home.

DAILY REAL ESTATE NEWS | FRIDAY, APRIL 15, 2016

Mortgage Rates in 2016The 30-year fixed mortgage rate dipped to its lowest average of the year this week, averaging 3.58 percent, Freddie Mac reports in its latest mortgage market survey.

“Demand for Treasuries remained high this week, driving yields to their lowest point since February,” says Sean Becketti, Freddie Mac’s chief economist. “In response, the 30-year mortgage rate fell 1 basis point to 3.58 percent. This rate represents yet another low for 2016 and the lowest mark since May 2013.”

Freddie Mac reports the following national averages with mortgage rates for the week ending April 14:

  • 30-year fixed-rate mortgages: averaged 3.58 percent, with an average 0.5 point, dropping from last week’s 3.59 percent average. Last year at this time, 30-year rates averaged 3.67 percent.
  • 15-year fixed-rate mortgages: averaged 2.86 percent, with an average 0.5 point, falling from last week’s 2.88 percent average. A year ago, 15-year rates averaged 2.94 percent.
  • 5-year hybrid adjustable-rate mortgages: averaged 2.84 percent, with an average 0.4 point, rising from last week’s 2.82 percent average. Last year at this time, 5-year ARMs averaged 2.88 percent.

It’s a great time to buy a home in Phoenix, Arizona. Call Laura B. today to begin the process of buying your historic Phoenix dream home.

Mortgage Rates Hit New Low for 2016

DAILY REAL ESTATE NEWS | FRIDAY, APRIL 08, 2016

Mortgage rates this week plunged to their lowest level since February 2015, unlocking more savings for home buyers and home owners who are refinancing.

2016 Mortgage Rates,Phoenix,National“Mortgage rates this week registered the delayed impact of last week’s sharp drop in Treasury yields, as the 30-year mortgage rate fell 12 basis points to 3.59 percent,” says Freddie Mac chief economist Sean Becketti. “This rate marks a new low for 2016. Low mortgage rates and a positive employment outlook should support a strong housing market in the second quarter of 2016.”

Freddie Mac reports the following national averages with mortgage rates for the week ending April 7:

  • 30-year fixed-rate mortgages: averaged 3.59 percent, with an average 0.5 point, dropping from last week’s 3.71 percent average. Last year at this time, 30-year rates averaged 3.66 percent.
  • 15-year fixed-rate mortgages: averaged 2.88 percent, with an average 0.4 point, falling from last week’s 2.98 percent average. A year ago, 15-year rates averaged 2.93 percent.
  • 5-year hybrid adjustable-rate mortgages: averaged 2.82 percent, with an average 0.5 point, dropping from last week’s 2.90 percent average. A year ago, 5-year ARMs averaged 2.83 percent.

It’s a great time to buy a home in Phoenix, Arizona. Call Laura B. today to begin the process of buying your historic Phoenix dream home.

Source: Freddie Mac

The Numbers Are In and 2016 Is Off to a Good Start in Home Sales

We may be on the verge of spring, but housing and economic reports work on a bit of a lag time. We’ve only just gotten the major data reports for January, and it’s giving us a clear-eyed view of how the real estate market is measuring up this year.

Home sales in 20162016 Is off to a good start in home sales. And yeah, things are looking good.

Job creation—arguably the most important factor in housing demand—is moving apace. January saw 151,000 jobs created. That level of employment growth is below 2015’s monthly average, but unemployment is now near 10-year lows and is in line with the current macro forecast from the National Association of Realtors® (NAR). This level of employment growth should translate into the 3% growth in housing sales we are expecting for the year.

Speaking of sales, January’s existing home sales report did not disappoint. Even though sales are taking longer to close, due to the implementation of new disclosure and closing forms and procedures, the pace grew 0.4% in January from December. Granted, that’s not a lot, but analysts had been expecting a decline. And from January 2015 to January 2016, existing home sales grew a solidly impressive 11%.

The increase in sales is resulting in continued tighter-than-tight supply—measured by NAR to be four months in January.  For you non-economists out there, that metric measures the number of months it would take to sell the current inventory of available homes, at the current pace. Got it? Six to seven months’ worth of homes on the market is considered normal; four months is cray-cray.

This is driving prices higher and encouraging consumers who hope to buy this year to get started as soon as possible.

January’s new home sales and new home construction remained consistent with the pace of activity of the last several months. Still, the level of new construction still represents solid year-over-year growth, especially in single-family homes. The most encouraging sign: The median price of new homes is finally declining, as a result of the fact that builders are offering more affordable homes.

Finally, the most timely readings we can pass on come from our own observations at realtor.com that confirm that demand is growing rapidly at the start of the year, resulting in an acceleration in inventory movement that we typically do not see until March or April.

OK, not everything is rainbows and unicorns. The biggest negative trend impacting potential demand relates to the January and February declines in stock values, which have taken a toll on consumer confidence. But, even that negative trend has a silver lining: Mortgage rates are now substantially lower. The average 30-year conforming rate has stabilized at under 3.7%, giving buyers almost 5% more buying power than they had at the end of 2015, and strengthening their ability to meet the debt-to-income ratio requirement for a loan.

Net-net, pent-up demand appears stronger than any weakness caused by the financial markets. And the lower rates are encouraging would-be buyers to act sooner rather than later. With this strong start, 2016 should indeed see growth, but the biggest constraint will be the tight supply.

Courtesy Realtor.com

If you’re ready to get pre-approved for a home mortgage and start home shopping, give me a call or email today.

Mortgage Rates Move Lower Than Expected

DAILY REAL ESTATE NEWS | FRIDAY, FEBRUARY 05, 2016

Janet Yellen Interest Rates

For the fifth consecutive week, mortgage rates trended down, surprising even forecasters. The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is now at its lowest average since April 30, 2015.

“Market volatility — and the associated flight to quality — continued unabated this week,” says Sean Becketti, Freddie Mac’s chief economist. “The yield on the 10-year Treasury dropped another 15 basis points, and the 30-year mortgage rate fell 7 basis points as well, to 3.72 percent. Both the Treasury yield and the mortgage rate now are in the neighborhood of early-2015 lows. These declines are not what the market anticipated when the Fed raised the Federal funds rate in December. For now, though, sub-4-percent mortgage rates are providing a longer-than-expected opportunity for mortgage borrowers to refinance.”

This week the market forecasted zero hikes in 2016 for the Fed’s short-term rates, which could keep mortgage rates low. Analysts are now predicting that the closely monitored Fed Futures market has nearly a 60 percent chance of no rate hikes at all this year, marking a “dramatic U-Turn from only a month ago when the market was pricing in a 75 percent probability the Fed would increase rates at least once in 2016,” CNNMoney reports.

The Fed had risen rates 0.25 in December, its first increase in nearly 10 years. But with stock markets spiraling downward and the fragile global economy, analysts believe this will likely prompt the Fed to pause in raising rates.

“Things have happened in financial markets and in the flow of economic data that may be in the process of altering the outlook for growth,” Fed vice chairman Bill Dudley told MarketWatch this week.

Freddie Mac reports the following national averages with mortgage rates for the week ending Feb. 4:

  • 30-year fixed-rate mortgages: averaged 3.72 percent, with an average 0.6 point, dropping from last week’s 3.79 percent average. A year ago, 30-year rates averaged 3.59 percent.
  • 15-year fixed-rate mortgages: averaged 3.01 percent, with an average 0.5 point, falling from last week’s 3.07 percent average. Last year at this time, 15-year rates averaged 2.92 percent.
  • 5-year hybrid adjustable-rate mortgages: averaged 2.85 percent, with an average 0.4 point, falling from last week’s 2.90 percent average. A year ago, 5-year ARMs averaged 2.82 percent.

The opportunity to buy a home at low interest rates is still here. For how long, who knows?

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A big change could be about to come to the housing market

Jonathan Marino and Andy Kiersz
Dec. 26, 2015, 8:44 AM

The Federal Reserve has finally lifted interest rates from 0% and after nine years without a rate hike.

The potential ramifications of the policy move are far-reaching and span various American industries, from automakers to homebuilders to investment banks.

But those impacts may be disparate.

Typically, rising interest rates make for a more difficult borrowing environment. That has the potential to slow home sales, which impacts US banks, as well as new starts, which will hurt homebuilders.

With the Fed’s rate hike, history shows homes starts have tended toward a decline, which will inevitably hurt homebuilders. When rates get higher, building new homes is usually a less attractive prospect.

“Homebuilding stocks are typically losers from an absolute and relative standpoint during tightening cycles,” according to a separate Credit Suisse note from December 15. “Historically homebuilding stocks under performed the S&P 500 during each of the past six Fed tightening cycles.”

For years after the Federal Reserve’s decision to back down interest rates to 0%, a badly beaten homebuilding sector saw gradual increases in both homes starts and permits. They never rose to the pre-crisis levels, but the period that led up to this was in part fueled by an unprecedented boom in lending to many unqualified borrowers.

Yet it is debatable on Wall Street whether the average consumer’s psyche is far less tethered to the behavior of US central bankers than, say, that of a Wall Street executive.

“If we do see some rate increases coming, because it reflects a stronger economy, nobody is going to not buy a house because the mortgage rates went up,” Wells Fargo CEO John Stumpf said the Goldman Sachs Financial Services Conference earlier this month. “They can choose a different product and probably get the same rate. The same thing is true for small businesses.”

But Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan doesn’t agree with Stumpf.

“If you see rates rise, you’ll see the mortgage market slow down,” Moynihan said at same event earlier this month, before the Federal Reserve raised rates.

At still the same event, Blackstone Group CEO Steve Schwarzman noted that most interest-rate hikes have typically resulted in an uptick in home prices.

“Twenty-five out of 26 times when interest rates went up, home prices went up,” Schwarzman said.

If that is indeed the case, homebuilders may be better building more and aiming to make it up on margin. Even at the end of 2016, interest rates are expected to remain near record lows for the last half-century.

It’s a great time to buy a home.

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